Average Age of Cars, Trucks Hits 10.8 Years, Sets Record

The average age of cars and trucks on U.S. roads is 10.8 years, the oldest ever recorded, according to Southfield-based Polk. By comparison, the average age of the fleet was just 8.4 years in 1996.

Between 2008 and 2011, analysts estimate Americans bought about 10 million fewer cars than if the economy had been stronger. But a sour economy is not the only thing at work: Modern cars as a whole are more reliable than ever, with many running strong at 200,000 miles (321 000 km) or more.

As a result, automakers say millions of Americans have postponed buying a new car. Some see that about to change.

"Regardless of where the economy hits, the auto industry still heads north," Toyota Motor Sales USA chief Jim Lentz said Friday. "The economy, unemployment are still going to be stubborn, but there's so much pent-up demand I think the industry is going to have an awesome year."

Auto sales rose 10 percent to 12.8 million in 2011. That was still far below traditional sales levels. In the early 2000s, Americans bought about 16 million cars annually.

The age of the average vehicle has been increasing quickly over the past five years.

Polk said passenger cars rose in average age only slightly from 2010, from 11 years to 11.1 years from 2010. But light trucks — including pickups and SUVs — saw a bigger jump, with average age rising from 10.1 years to 10.4 years.

The rebound in new vehicle sales in 2011 and for the next couple of years will likely slow the aging rate seen in the market, Polk said.

Cars 'better made'

David Cole, chairman emeritus of the Center for Automotive Research, says one reason Americans are holding on to cars longer is that they are better made.

"The old days of vehicles rusting our after four or five years are gone. Cars are so much better made in order to compete in the market," Cole said.

At the same time, Americans have cut back on driving. Americans drove 36 billion fewer miles (57 936 384 000 kilometers) in the first 10 months of 2011, down 1.4 percent.

The National Automobile Dealers Association says used car sales will remain strong in 2012."The average trade-in value of a three-year-old used car is 8 percent higher in January 2012 compared to last January," said Jonathan Banks, executive auto analyst with the NADA Used Car Guide. "We expect this trend of higher trade-in values to continue throughout the year."

Business opportunities

Raymond Campise Jr., owner of Certified Motors in St. Clair Shores, says many prospective buyers don't have the credit score to get a car loan. Others with worse-than-average credit face high interest rates.

Many choose to repair their older cars instead. "For some people it can be cheaper to fix than buy a new or used car," Campise said.

And older cars present business opportunities.

"The increasing age of the vehicle fleet, together with the increasing length of ownership, offers significant business growth opportunity for the automotive aftermarket," said Mark Seng, global aftermarket practice leader at Polk. "Dealer service departments and independent repair facilities, as well as aftermarket parts suppliers, will see increased business opportunity with customers in need of vehicle service."

Paul Taylor, chief economist of the National Automobile Dealers Association, predicts 13.9 million new cars and light trucks will be sold in 2012. He cites the aging fleet, affordable credit and aggressive incentives in spurring higher sales.

"With the age of cars and trucks on the road today at nearly 11 years, consumers can no longer delay making a purchase of a new or newer vehicle," he said.