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Carburant – Une hausse vertigineuse en perspective

17 January 2018 - lexpress.mu

Illustration

Tous les indicateurs poussent à l’envol du prix du carburant. Les autorités doivent trouver la bonne formule pour maîtriser la situation.

Le calme avant la tempête. L'effet du  maintien  du prix à la pompe à son niveau du mois de décembre risque de surprendre les automobilistes. Des impacts négatifs sont attendus aux prochaines révisions. Les analystes prévoient une hausse conséquente du prix à la pompe. «Plus l'Etat mettra du temps à réviser le prix à la pompe, plus les conséquences seront lourdes pour les consommateurs. Les prochaines révisions ne seraient qu'une séance de rattrapage de ces rabais afin de combler les manques à gagner des pétroliers. À moins que les autorités trouvent la bonne formule pour éviter cette hausse», a expliqué un économiste.

En analysant les prix actuels du carburant, le gasoil risque de subir un mauvais sort. Cela n'épargne pas non plus les autres produits pétroliers. D'énormes différences de prix sont constatées entre le prix réel et le prix affiché à la pompe. Or, l'État doit toujours combler ces différentiels. Bien que les prix aient augmenté en décembre, ceux-ci restent toujours inférieurs aux prix réels. Le prix maxima du gasoil devrait être à 3298 ariary, si l'on tient compte des données affichées sur le site de l'Office malgache des hydrocarbures (OMH), mais il est ajusté à 3190 ariary en décembre grâce au mécanisme de lissage des prix.

Hausse en flèche

Ce mécanisme permet en effet au gouvernement d'ajuster le prix du carburant affiché à la pompe. Depuis plusieurs mois, les hausses ou les baisses réelles des prix sont ainsi reportées de façon à éviter une trop grande fluctuation des prix.

Sur le marché international, le cours du pétrole ne cesse de monter en flèche. Hier, le prix du baril était de 64 dollars, bien loin des 55 dollars au mois de décembre. De son côté, la dépréciation de la monnaie nationale ne joue pas du tout en faveur d'une éventuelle baisse du prix à la pompe. Au cours des trois derniers mois, la dégringolade de l'ariary est très remarquable. Le cours de référence de l'euro sur le marché des devises est de 3952 ariary hier et le dollar se négociait à 3243 ariary contre 3039 ariary, lors de la révision du prix au mois de décembre. La nouvelle disposition fiscale ne fait qu'aggraver la situation. Depuis le 1er janvier, les taxes sur le super carburant passeront de 390 ariary par litre à 503 ariary, tandis que celles du gasoil sont quasiment doublées, c'est-à-dire de 120 ariary à 228 ariary par litre.

Pour maîtriser la stabilité du prix à la pompe, le gouvernement a annoncé la révision du mode de calcul. Aux yeux des autorités, la structure actuelle du prix serait plus avantageuse pour les pétroliers. Le gouvernement envisage de contraindre les pétroliers à réduire leurs marges bénéficiaires. Or, les négociations dans ce sens n'ont pas encore porté leurs fruits. En attendant, le gouvernement a choisi de ne pas toucher, pour le moment, au prix appliqué à la pompe.

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